Good Careers According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2009

Good Careers in a Bad Economy, Part 2

Young adults who pursue good careers in a bad economy will encounter not only skeptics, but also cynical humorists.

U.S. News & World Report, for example, placed “federal judge” at the end of a list of the best recession-proof careers. The joke is that federal judges, unlike their state and local peers, are appointed for life.

Then there’s the occasionally morbid “Top 25 Careers to Pursue in a Recession” on HRworld.com. These include careers in casino management, because desperate people will gamble more often, and in distribution and sales of alcohol, because unhappy people will drink more often. Also listed are debt collection and bankruptcy law, for obvious reasons.

For young adults facing the tightest job market since the Great Depression, these wisecracks may not seem so funny.

But chin up. Teens and young adults still should pursue their ideal dream career. If that dream career is also a recession-proof career, all the better. If not, a recession-proof career can offer security in case a dream career becomes a dream deferred.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Tells the Story

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a grim official unemployment rate of 8.1 percent at the close of February 2009, up from 4.8 percent a year ago. Even the most optimistic economists predict a continued rise to at least 9 percent, while the glass-half-empty analysts are forecasting 12 percent or higher.

More insight is gleaned by perusing the Labor Bureau’s specific breakdowns. To get the bad news out of the way, here are some of the dimmer prospects, comparing February 2009 unemployment with February 2008 unemployment (in parentheses):

• Manufacturing: 11.5 percent (5.0 percent)
• Leisure and hospitality: 11.4 percent (8.5 percent)
• Professional and business services: 10.8 percent (6.2 percent)
• Hourly: 9.6 percent (5.5 percent)
• Transportation and utilities: 9.1 percent (4.6 percent)
• Financial services: 6.7 percent (3.4 percent)

On the brighter side, consider education and health services unemployment at 4.1 percent today, compared with 2.9 percent a year ago, and government jobs at 2.6 percent versus 1.7 percent in 2008. These figures still reflect unemployment increases, but the outlook still is more optimistic.

Information technology is a mixed bag, with unemployment in February 2009 at 7.1 percent compared with 5.8 percent last year. This is a case where you may need to be more specific. A report on Examiner.com notes that a number of entry-level information technology jobs are shipped overseas, but computer security still is generally managed by career American employees.

Government Careers? Focus on the Feds

Good Careers in a Bad Economy
Part 1: Graduating in a Recession
Part 2: According to the March 2009 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Part 3: Potential Careers Arising from the Stimulus Bill
Part 4: Career Forecast: Look for Overlapping Opportunities
Part 5: Career Planning: The More Things Change, the More they Stay the Same

For the government employment outlook, the most recession-proof careers are at the federal level. The reason is simple: The federal government can (and does) run up debt, while states and localities are forbidden to do so. Compare the federal response to the recession under President Barack Obama with job creation under legally allowed deficit spending, to the California response under Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, with job losses required to balance the books.

Another good reason for choosing the federal government is that opportunities are so vast. The quest for alternative “green” energy during the next decade will match the NASA buildup of the 1960s. Even the FBI and CIA have opened their doors with ad campaigns for career employment applicants.

In education, the career outlook is good. However, to truly have a recession-proof position, a specialty in math and/or science is best. This is where the shortages and pay incentives exist.

Payscale.com suggests that the best way to pursue your career dream, and to remain recession-proof at the same time, is to be versatile. This can be compared to an athlete in a team sport who is capable of playing at multiple positions. The more irons in the fire, the better.

Michael Thompson